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The Transformation of Project Delivery

December 30, 2014

Predicting the future of project delivery – or of any other human endeavor – is a risky undertaking. As noted by Nate Silver in his recent book The Signal in the Noise,1 most predictions fail. Moreover, the events that truly shape the future are the improbable events – Nicholas Nassim Taleb’s Black Swans – not those events that we can anticipate and predict. If we learn one thing from history, it is that the future is not history repeated and that the implications of change are often far different from the intentions. When DARPA developed the Internet, it wasn’t thinking about Facebook, Twitter, or Amazon. Nor did it consider how these might interact in political and social revolution, such as the recent Arab Spring. Thus, over a long horizon, the events that may most affect project delivery are those we don’t anticipate.

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Howard Ashcraft Jr.

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